Sun Ray
A look ahead: Some technology developments to expect in 2009
2008 was a year of rapid changes for Chief Technology Officers. We should expect 2009 to move even faster. Where will the biggest trends take us? I offer some considerations below. Please
look these over and give me your thoughts. Push back if you have
disagreement.
First, my overall advice for CTOs in 2009… Just like the new thin interfaces you will be testing in your lab… be flexible. Now here are some more thoughts on what's in store for CTO s in 2009:
- Here is a no-brainer: Increasingly CTOs will leverage social media to
collaborate. Things are moving so fast that we all like to network to
seek help on big things and to get advanced warning on what is coming
next. More of us will be on Twitter, in Facebook, and writing blogs.
And this is a good thing.
- "Mashups" will still be very
important as an enterprise objective in 2009 (and beyond). And the
company that will help accelerate them into the federal enterprise is
JackBe. They do things in a way that enterprise CTO s like. They build
in connections to governance, security, identity management. And they
play well with the entire ecosystem so you don't have to rework all
legacy just to use them. Of course web2.0 will remain a key trend, but mashups takes web2.0 to a new, more mission-oriented level and for enterprise players the mission is what is important.
- An approach we will all learn to love and follow is "context
accumulation". This very important term was coined by Jeff Jonas, and
I think Jeff is going to have all of us moving out on that in the next
12 months. If you agree, visit his blog and by all means help others
understand why this is really the only way we humans stand a chance of
surviving/thriving in the onslaught of data.
- Federal acquisition of IT will still be criticized for all the
reasons it always has been. But there will also be an acceleration of
a dramatic positive change brought about because of open source
software and a new appreciation that IT acquisition processes
(RFI/RFP/FAR/DFAR based purchases) do not apply to software that is
free. Free software is not being bought, it is being used, for free.
The whole reason the FAR exists is to ensure when the taxpayer's money
gets spent it gets spent wisely. When things are free the FAR has less
applicability. Services for open source are being bought and since
that uses government money of course the taxpayers will continued to be
served by the same FAR-type processes that are meant to ensure open
competition, but that is not for free open source software, that is for
services to configure and manage the software.
- Will this be the year of enterprise security? We have been banking on that for a long long time. We know the answers on how to make enterprises more secure. There is a great recap of some of the most important components of security in the CSIS report. But there are many more things that can be done as well. My goal, as captured here, is to improve security by two orders of magnitude within the next 24 months.
- Netbooks, Thin Clients and Cloud Computing will accelerate
throughout the technology landscape, especially inside the federal
government. These trends in both devices and the cloud components are directly related and are also benefiting from the global, unstoppable trend toward open computing
(open software and open standards). One to watch in this area: Sun
Microsystems. But also track the dynamics of the netbooks providers.
Dell will get serious about netbooks, but Acer will continue to grow
market share.
- A key accelerator of Cloud Computing has been the powerful technologies of virtualization, especially those of VMware. Open source and other virtualization capabilities are coming fast too. Trend to watch in 2009 is the arrival of higher order, more elagant capabilities to manage virtualizaiton accross large enterprises. VMware and Opsware (HP) will continue to evolve to do this, but Appistry, Vizioncore, Xsigo and Sun (and others?) are coming fast.
- Increasingly leaders will recognize that concepts of operation that
require humans to tag and create metadata are sub-optimized. When busy
people are tasked with burdensome tagging operations they too
frequently become tempted to cut corners and rush the process. Over
time, meta data generated this way just becomes meta crap. This
growing recognition in the federal space will sweep in new technologies
and new approaches to discovery of content. One to watch to solve this
issue: Endeca, because of their approach to visualizing information and enabling human to computer iterative examination of data. - Flexible computers will arrive in production this year for early
adopters and many CTOs will use them in labs to assess applicability
for massive deployment in the coming years. These flexible computers
are the ultimate thin clients. Backends/servers/architectures
developed for the cloud perfectly suit ultra thin, flexible computing
devices. For more on this hot topic, start at the site of the Flexible Display Center at ASU.
- Collaboration will increasingly be seen as the means to link human
brains together. Collaboration tools that are stand alone stovepipes
will be a thing of the past. Users will collaborate using the entire
technology environment: voice, video, data, whiteboard, chat,
application sharing, info discovery will increasingly be integrated
into a single fabric. Key players here: Adobe, Microsoft and Cisco.
- In a big change for how money is moved in major enterprises, the CIO
will be given responsibility for the energy budget. This will encourage
CIOs to modernize to conserve energy, since money saved from energy
costs can be invested back in modern IT. This will be a very virtuous
cycle, that saves money for organizations, saves energy, and modernizes
IT.
- In a stunning turn, IPv6 will be rapidly adopted, not by enterprises,
but in homes. The major home communications provider that delivers
full IPv6 to home environments (and to cell phones) will have an incredible advantage over
competitors and will dominate. The many rich features of IPv6
delivered to consumers will finally push enterprises everywhere to move
out on IPv6.
- In 2009, as in every year prior and for most into the future, there
will continue to be bad people using technology to do bad things.
Enterprises will move to protect info, but bad guys will keep moving to
get the data. And the use of social networking tools by terrorists
will likely grow. This is not a foregone conclusion, but I'm not
personally sure what can be done to mitigate the use of advanced
technology by bad people, other than to say that we good people need to
work together more to stop them, and my hope is that we can keep 2009
safe and secure.
Thoughts/comments/suggestions? Please let me know what you think.
The Disruptive Power of Netbooks
The idea of light-weight, low-cost, but very powerful laptops designed for a smaller feature set than traditional laptops has been around for a decade or so. But all indications are that something has changed in the market place. Due to a convergence of many factors, netbooks are growing in sales. These factors include the continual improvement in wireless speeds, the more widespread availability of wifi, the continued drop in cost of hardware, the continued increase in performance of open source operating systems and open source applications, the unstoppable move to more thin-client solutions, and the dramatically increased capabilities of cloud computing services (including the entire web2.0 megatrend and of course the continued innovations of Google in the cloud computing and online applications space).
I just did a few searches on Amazon and Bestbuy for netbooks devices, and pulled up entries for small notebooks like the Acer Aspire One, an 8.9-inch mini laptop that runs Linux Lite and sells for under $300.00. It has plenty of capability and is very lightweight. It comes loaded with applications, including open source office automation packages (I think I would want to download the most recent version of open office if I purchased this). It also comes with a built in camera and is ready for high end video chat.
Will I buy one? There are clearly some of these in my future, I just don't know when. I have a MacBook and I really like it for everything I need in a laptop. I use it around the house and on travel. And, although it is over a year old now, it doesn't need replacement. When it does, however, I'm going to be asking myself why I would want to pay $1000 more for a Mac instead of a couple hundered for a Netbook. So much of what I do I do on the cloud anyway, and the many things I do locally can be done using the free Open Office.
If we assume the same sort of trades are being considered by other buyers, a conclusion starts to emerge. Netbooks are going to be a very disruptive force in the market.
And what is the market saying so far about this trend? Acer is reporting huge success with their netbooks approach, their sales have been growing significantly. They just reported a 78.8 percent growth rate over the same quarter in 2007. And this is during a huge market downturn. HP and Dell are reporting unit sales growth of 13.5 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively. Apple is just about flat.
If you are an enterprise CTO, what should you do with this information? For one, you should consider how to use laptops/netbooks like these in your organization. If done right, you can enhance the security of your enterprise by moving more of your data and applications to secure clouds, and you can also add security features to your netbooks and field a significant enhancement to your security posture. And, since the cost of these devices is far less than traditional laptops you can equip more of your workforce and save money at the same time, which is a very virtuous thing in this economic environment.
Note: I've previously written about several devices that qualify as netbooks, including:
Thin Client Laptops: Functionality, Security, Mobility A review of high end, enterprise quality wireless stateless thin clients using the Sun Microsystems approach;
and
The Future Is Changing Again A review of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative.
I also recommend a recent article at Economist.com called Small is Beautiful.
And, thanks to a friend on Twitter, I just got pointed to a post at GigaOm titled: Why Netbooks are Greener Than Laptops
CTOs, Global Cyberwar and Our Collective Future
If you are a technologist, please take a moment to download the PDF of the report by the U.S. Commission on Cybersecurity. This report, titled Securing Cyberspace for the 44th Presidency, is the best proclamation of the challenges of cyber I have read. It is also a roadmap that will help any trying to navigate these very tough issues.
I've been involved in things cyber for a long time. My deepest
involvement began in December 1998, almost 10 years ago to the day.
In all that time I've seen lots of studies and lots of papers and many
treatments of the issues. But I've never seen one that captures the
complexities and the need for specific actions as well as this one.
I'd really recommend you read every word, if you want to be considered literate in this field. But if it will be a little while till you get to it, here are some key points:
The three major findings are: 1) Cybersecurity is now a major national security problem for the U.S., 2) Decisions and actins must respect privacy and civil liberties, and 3) only a comprehensive national security strategy that embraces both the domestic and international aspects of cybersecurity will make us more secure.
The report makes a few points about the Bush Administration's Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI). In general the give credit to that initiative, and call it good. I agree, it is a great activity I've previously written about that is led by one of the most effective people in government today and has done great work. But as the comission points out, the work of the CNCI is good but not sufficient.
The biggest shock for me in this study: The amount of funding on R&D for cyber security. I have been looking into the many activities underway, and maybe that look made me deceive myself into thinking it was a well funded effort. According to the comission, however, they estimate that the total R&D funding in the federal government for cybersecurity is about $300million. Less than two-tenths of one percent of the total federal R&D.
The report has a great section on identity manangement.
I am convinced the organizational approaches outlined in the study are the right ones as well. There is only one place in our government where we can lead solutions to this challenge. Where is that? Hey read the report!
What else do I recommend CTOs do besides read the report? I think one way we can all help the cybersecurity effort is to think through which standards bodies are the most important to engage with regarding security. A few are here:
http://www.ctovision.com/2008/05/standards-organizations-ctos-should-track.html
Securing Enterprise Data and Computer Power
In March I posted an entry on a significant enhancement in the computing realm, the thin client. That post focused on how thin client computing is changing the net assessment in computer security (see: http://www.ctovision.com/2008/03/computer-securi.html ).
I've been really pleased to watch thin client computing take off. How widespread is adoption now? In August Sun announced that they had nearly doubled their shipments of thin clients from the previous quarter. That's pretty cool. In fact, it is Kurzweilian.
Thin Client Laptops: Functionality, Security, Mobility
For the past few weeks I've been using a unique device — a totally stateless laptop.
It is the Tadpole M1400 Ultra-Thin Client Wireless Sun Ray.
Here are some things this device can enable for enterprise users:
– Enhanced security. If the laptop is lost/stolen/attacked no data is lost. The data is never in the laptop, it remains in your enterprise.
– Enhanced functionality. All users everywhere can get upgrades to the latest software instantly. Upgrades happen in the server room, not by downloading apps to every device. And multiple domains can be presented to one laptop.
– Enhanced flexibility. All users everywhere can get access to presentations of operating system environments they need. Depending on what the enterprise chooses, users can be presented with MS Windows, Mac OS, Solaris or Linux desktops.
– Enhanced mobility. Like any other laptop, this device is designed to be mobile. It can connect to the grid over WiFi, 3G card, or if you desire, an Ethernet cable. I've tested it using WiFi at home and on the road and the performance is great.
Concerning speed and 3G: I tested the Tadpole thin client using 3G (using a Qualcomm 3G CDMA card on the Verizon Broadband Access network). When you have to use it, 3G delivers ok performance, but just like with fat client laptops or iPhones, 3G speeds can leave you wanting more (faster networks are coming quickly, see: How fast is 3G and what is 3.5G and when will 4G be here? ).
If you are a CTO/CIO/enterprise technologist you can probably already understand the power and potential of the "stateless laptop." Having one in my hands just brings that home to me. This is a way to deliver significantly enhanced security and enterprise-class functionality/power to mobile users. And since it can be done in a way that reduces cost it makes this a compelling approach.
I wonder, what could the role of this new device be in the federal government's Cyber Initiative (see Protecting Federal Networks Against Cyber Attack) ? Or what the role might be in reducing cyber crime? I'll leave those for topics of future posts.
Thin client computing and converged voice
Companies, real companies that focus on business success, buy
solutions, not point products. One of the most significant solutions I
have seen in years is coming from a partnership between two great IT
firms, Sun Microsystems and Mitel. The video below has Sun founder and
Chairman Scott McNealy and Mitel Chairman Terry Matthews place this
solution in context. The solution described saves in costs but more
importantly delivers incredible computing power to the user, where ever
the user is, and it does that with far more security.
Scott hits on how important this technology can improve the security situation for government users and I think he gets it exactly right. Thin client changes the security net assessment, as I’ve blogged about before (see: Computer Security: a change to the net assessment ).
As you watch the demo in the video, a couple things will jump right out
at you, like how seamless an integrated desktop to mobile back to
desktop voice and data and computing power solution can be. Another
important point for government users is that the pioneering work that
was done in helping articulate requirements for devices like the Sun
Ray has resulted in a much better product that corporate america is now
running with. That should keep the innovation going in the Sun Ray
product line, which will result in more capabilities in the future.
So, please check this out:
More later.
Clayton Christensen, Disruptive Innovations and Enterprise IT
Today I got to meet one of the most influential
thinkers/speakers/writers in the globe today– Clayton Christensen. He
spoke to a small group of technologists (CIOs and CTOs) at the Cisco IT
executive forum, and held us all spell-bound by his fascinating (but
sometimes dismal) projections based on his understanding of some major market forces.
Although I recognize most of the thoughts he presented from his
books and articles, it was good having his personal context. It may
help some of those concepts to sink it a bit more, and will help me as
I try to maintain an eye on the horizon for the next technology
disruptions.
One thing I realized right away is that I have been using the terms
he coined a little bit differently than he does. I hope that is just a
matter of perspective and not a misuse of the concepts he articulates
so well.
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