Robots

The Future of Cyberspace Security: The Law of The Rodeo

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This is an update of my now annual assessment of the future of technology associated with good and evil in cyberspace which was first posted here.

Predictions
of the future of technology are increasingly starting to sound like
science fiction, with powerful computing grids giving incredible computational power to users and with autonomous robots becoming closer and closer to being in our daily lives vice just in computer science departments. Infotech, nanotech and biotech are fueling each other and each of those three dominate fields are generating more and more benefits that impact the other, propelling us even faster into a new world.   Depending on your point of view the increasing pace of science and technology can be good or
bad.  As for me, I'm an optimist, and I know we humans will find a way
to ensure technology serves our best interests.   

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What’s Next In Enterprise IT

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Kurzweil
Reportedly Bill Gates said "We always overestimate the change that will occur
in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in
the next ten."  That is a very level headed observation.  I think it reflects the way we humans react to technology capability growth.   Think for a minute about most of the graphs you see in Ray Kurzweil presentations.  Exponential growth isn’t dramatic right away, it is dramatic over time.  We get our hopes up and expect wonders right away and overestimate the change that should be here short term.  Then tend to be discouraged when that dramatic change isn’t here yet which makes us underestimate the power of something like a doubling of performance every year multiplied by ten years. 

I think enterprise CTOs are in tough spots because they are charged with avoiding both the human faults outlined above.  A CTO needs to have a balanced estimate of the change that will be here in a year or two or ten.  And we need that balanced assessment across multiple sub disciplines of enterprise technology, including virtualization, storage, communications, middleware, development environments, etc.   

I can’t say I have the magic recipe that will provide that balance.  But I do have some personal predictions of change that I enjoy sharing with other technologists.  I built a briefing on the future of IT several years ago to help my organization confront some brutal facts about the future.  I later changed it to help us with strategic planning efforts, and over time updated it to help several decision makers noodle through the impact of some key technologies on our future. 

I’ve attached two copies of the briefing here, one in open document format and one in Powerpoint format. 

Download 080402TechnologyFutures.odp

Download 080402TechnologyFutures.ppt

Now let me mention the big flaw in my briefing.  Although it has been reviewed and commented on by some GREAT technologists around the federal community and in Silicon Valley, it really needs more eyes on it and could use more input.  I think what I need to do is convert it to 100% text and then build a page on wikipedia for this topic that many hands can edit.  Then we will have something that may be of more use to enterprise technologists.   

But till then, please let me know if you have any suggestions for me on technologies I should be tracking, or comments on assessments I mention in the briefing.

Thanks much.

Bob

Government Web2.0 Trends for 2008

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Eagle_2
I blog a bit at the site of Washington DC’s ExecutiveBiz.   The ExecutiveBiz blog is widely read and focuses on items thought to be of interest to area senior executives and attendees of the ExecutiveBiz events.

I just posted an entry there that I would appreciate my CTO friends checking out.  I could use any feedback you have on the theories and ideas I posit there.  The entry is on Government Web2.0 Trends for 2008

The first theory I posit there is that Web2.0 in government will result in more innovation. I say:

Most large organizations, including government, find the most innovation where there is interaction with others.  Innovation frequently seems to come from the edge. With more Web2.0 in government, there will be increased interactions among users internal to government and with citizens. Every interaction is an opportunity to learn of an unmet need which is an opportunity to fuel innovation.

I really believe this dynamic will be more at play in 2008 due to enhanced use of Web2.0 in government.  But I’d appreciate views on whether or not this will be a reality or whether or not we need to do things to ensure this comes true. 

The Future of Technology: A CTO View

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Futurenyhub_rendering
I’ve just updated my reference file on the future of technology.  It can be found at:

Download 071229TechnologyFutures.ppt (2320.5K)

or in open document format:

Download 071229TechnologyFutures.odp (1885.8K)

I enjoy maintaining this briefing on the future of information technology for a couple reasons.  One is that it is a great way to keep a dialog up with technologists and thought leaders.  It also forces me to think about the future and all CTOs need to do more of that (it is a way to help prepare for coming disruptions).

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Enterprise Requirements Come From Hollywood

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Clie01

Most visionary customers in today’s enterprises know what they want.  They want hot technology like they see in the movies or on "24."  They want to be served by their IT departments the way Jack Bauer is served by his IT department. 

I’m not complaining about that.  I like cool stuff too.  And actually it makes my job easier since now I have a good way to figure out what customers really want.  All I have to do is watch the hottest shows and see the IT imagined in Hollywood and that is what enterprise customers will be asking for.

I think the world’s R&D labs are also watching the movies.  Here is an example: in about a month Sony will be offering for sale the world’s first OLED (organic light emitting diode) TV.  Samsung and Seiko Epson have models that are following close after that. 

These OLED’s will offer bright, smooth, crisp images on screens that take less power, generate less heat and offer far more vivid pictures with no backlighting.  Additionally, and this is the Hollywood part, they can be made flexible.  So, like in the Harry Potter movies, where Harry’s favorite paper (The Daily Prophet) shows full motion video on something as thin as paper), soon we will be able to carry around a paper thin screen and have it loaded with whatever data the grid can provide.   Thanks Hollywood for that one.

The first models will not have this paper-like bendability.  But researchers are already working on that.  See Sony’s press release for more info.

This is just one example of Hollywood driving requirements which drives R&D.  Another I’ve personally seen is the TouchTable from Applied Minds.   I guess you could also say that Jeff Han’s perceptive pixel wall is the same way.  Both were influenced significantly by the customer demands coming out of Minority Report.
More later.

Robots are Coming! (soon, to an enterprise near you)

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Some of the most famous robots I’ve had the pleasure to observe are UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles).  These devices usually operate under human control, but most also come with the advanced circuitry that allows them to decide how to move from point to point through the air.  This is some really complex technology that requires the UAV to make and execute decisions on how to accomplish what its human master tells it to do.   

UAVs are an interesting example, because their use is becoming more widespread.  They are not only for operation over battlefields.  They are now increasingly being used by law enforcement, firefighters, fishing fleets and academic researchers studying all sorts of atmospheric and geodetic effects.   

But UAVs, like most other robots designed by and for large enterprises, are focused on accomplishing enterprise driven missions.  Robots designed and built for individual consumers are also arising and these will likely provide tremendous value not only for individuals but for enterprises. 

For example, a great deal of robot research in Japan is focused on finding ways to help care for its aging population.   Models are for sale now that are designed to keep elderly people entertained, stimulated and interacting with their environment.  New designs are being fielded with advanced senses of smell and other sensors designed to evaluate a human’s health.   Other  robots in Japan can feed by spoon or assist the elderly in moving around.   During a trip to Japan this summer I noticed more use of robotic contraptions/devices in places like parking lots and toll booths, but also robotic traffic control.   Several Japanese companies are selling versions of robots for security, including one that looks a lot like  RoboCop.

If I’ve gotten your curiosity up, Wikipedia has a good overview of the state of robotics.  That entry is well worth a review by any enterprise IT professional, because the coming rise of robots is going to have a huge impact on our future requirements.

For example, enterprises everywhere will need IT systems that can handle increases in sensor data from robots.  And most enterprises will need new tools to help plan the optimal use and placement of robotic sensors and other robots.  And most enterprises will need help desks staffed with people who know how to troubleshoot robots (or maybe robots can staff the help desk?).  Enterprises that work with sensitive data will need to establish policies on which robots will be allowed into their spaces since every one can collect information. 

And then there is robot repair. 

To underscore the need for robot repair, I’ll close with a personal anecdote.  I saw Asimo at the 2007 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.  He is so cool!  He can walk, talk, play soccer, dance, and handle a wide range of items.  He can recognize his environment and respond to it.  It was great to meet Asimo first hand.   During his stage performance, his human handler explained many of the feats the Honda engineering team accomplished in building Asimo.  We were all impressed.  The last big stunt Asimo was to perform for us was to run in a huge circle around the stage.  This, we were told, required many onboard calculations  to be done because of the advanced calculus required.  Asimo would need to think through the size of the stage, the placement of obstacles, his own planned speed and how to turn a little at a time to make a big circle.  So, we were told, Asimo would pause for 30 seconds to make those calculations.   Well he paused.  And paused.  And paused.  Two minutes later we were told that little Asimo had totally locked up.  He needed a reboot.  The show was over.   

That made me immediately realize two things.  For one, I was able to deduce what operating system little Asimo runs.  For two, it made me realize that many of the things we have seen about robots in bad science fiction might one day come true.  There can be glitches and ghosts in the machine that may result in unpredictable behavior.  So we enterprise technologists will always need ways to re-exert our control over robots.  That must be a meta-requirement.