Ray Kurzweil

The Technology Implications of the Obama Win

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Obama8
There are several megatrends sweeping the technology industry today.  Some of them are about to be accelerated.  

I like to use five key topic areas to track megatrends in IT: 

– Convergence and trend towards unified communications and user empowerment
– Globalization and increasing internationalization of IT and demographic shifts
– Increasing open development of software and hardware
– Power, Cooling and Space (PCS) impacting data centers and every place computing is done
– Increasing pace of technology development and probability of disruption

Over the past two months two major events have occurred which are impacting these trends.  

The
first was the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the resulting cascading
effects on the financial industry.  The impact on IT spending and the
movement of more enterprises to grid/cloud computing because of that
are still being assessed, but for some thoughts see: Wall Street Crisis

The second was the Presidential election of Barack Obama.   

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The Future of Cyberspace Security: The Law of The Rodeo

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This is an update of my now annual assessment of the future of technology associated with good and evil in cyberspace which was first posted here.

Predictions
of the future of technology are increasingly starting to sound like
science fiction, with powerful computing grids giving incredible computational power to users and with autonomous robots becoming closer and closer to being in our daily lives vice just in computer science departments. Infotech, nanotech and biotech are fueling each other and each of those three dominate fields are generating more and more benefits that impact the other, propelling us even faster into a new world.   Depending on your point of view the increasing pace of science and technology can be good or
bad.  As for me, I'm an optimist, and I know we humans will find a way
to ensure technology serves our best interests.   

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Securing Enterprise Data and Computer Power

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In March I posted an entry on a significant enhancement in the computing realm, the thin client.   That post focused on how thin client computing is changing the net assessment in computer security (see:  http://www.ctovision.com/2008/03/computer-securi.html  ).

I've been really pleased to watch thin client computing take off.  How widespread is adoption now?  In August Sun announced that they had nearly doubled their shipments of thin clients from the previous quarter.   That's pretty cool.  In fact, it is Kurzweilian.  

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Is Your CTO Making You Stupid?

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Nicholas Carr writes in ways that makes people think.  I really enjoyed reading his latest in the Atlantic titled "Is Google Making Us Stupid?"  This article covers some rather significant trends that IT is pushing into the global social fabric.  The changes he talks about are disturbing.  They are infecting people like a fast spreading disease. 

There is a chance you are suffering some of these symptoms yourself, so by all means read the article

Or if your attention span is going, here is how Nicholas Carr describes the symptoms : 

" Over the past few years I’ve had an uncomfortable sense that someone, or something, has been tinkering with my brain, remapping the neural circuitry, reprogramming the memory. My mind isn’t going—so far as I can tell—but it’s changing. I’m not thinking the way I used to think. I can feel it most strongly when I’m reading. Immersing myself in a book or a lengthy article used to be easy. My mind would get caught up in the narrative or the turns of the argument, and I’d spend hours strolling through long stretches of prose. That’s rarely the case anymore. Now my concentration often starts to drift after two or three pages. I get fidgety, lose the thread, begin looking for something else to do. I feel as if I’m always dragging my wayward brain back to the text. The deep reading that used to come naturally has become a struggle. "

I hope you dive deep into the Carr article for more details, but if you have the disease yourself you might not.  So here is a gist of key points:

  • Google and others have made research simple and fast and easy.

  • Almost all data can come into your head via your browser.

  • People read fewer (or no) books.

  • People are loosing the ability to read and retain info from long articles.

  • The Internet, through your browser, is the medium of choice.  Newspapers and print are on the out.  TV is heading out fast.

  • We also write through the web, and that is changing the way we think.

  • We too frequently are relying on computers to mediate our understanding of the world.

What do we do with this cautionary info?  One immediate think all of us should do is remember to carve out time in the day, every day, to read, write and think.

But if you are an enterprise technologist you should also consider what this means for you and your organization.  Some ideas:

  • The systems you are designing, developing and fielding to your workforce may serve your workforce better if their interfaces are more intuitive and less textual.  People will want to interface with enterprise systems they way they interface with the Internet (present your applications through browsers and summarize results and seek rapid human feedback on what they like or don't like about the results).

  • To the greatest extent possible, build systems that present fast results.

  • And present information in ways that let humans interact with it.

  • And present information in ways that ensure the humans are in charge of the process and in charge of assessing the relevance of results.

  • Don't stop innovating. 

  • Stay on the net yourself so you can track where it is going.

  • Get engaged in social media (if you are not already).  That means Facebook, Plaxo, LinkedIn, and Twitter (especially Twitter– it really changes your mind).

  • Translate those many lessons into the enterprise technology you field.

If you can do that and if you can stay focused on the mission all your users will thank you, and in many ways I think you will be helping make your organization smarter.  If you don't do that then the odds are great that you will just be part of the noise.   You may even be contributing to making your organzation stupid. 

Any thoughts/comments/suggestions on that topic?

The National Security Implications of Free 3D in a Browser

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Jeffrey Carr sent a short broadcast via Twitter the other day: ”

New post on 3D imaging and Virtual Earth – mind blowing video http://bit.ly/3SxtdA 
”  

Jeffrey was blogging about a capability shown in the short clip below:

As you watch that, keep in mind that what you are seeing is a capability that can run on any PC that can run Internet Explorer (which is just about all of them).
The clip shows a capability that Microsoft’s Caligari toolset “TrueSpace” has to build high resolution 3D models then upload them into Virtual Earth.

Currently national security planners, as well as others with mission needs for geospatial information, have many choices for solutions.  But most good solutions require loading specialized software on the workstation.  This includes, of course, Google Earth.   Google also provides 3D creation capabilities with Sketch-Up.  And that is a powerful combination.  But the need to load programs on workstations and move data to workstations complicates enterprise IT solutions.  Additionally, Google Earth is reportedly not accurate in elevation measurements.   Now the new capability shown in the YouTube clip indicates a solution that can give highly accurate 3D models to planners everywhere, and it can do that without having to instal large stand alone apps on workstations and without having to move large datasets to the workstation.    

A use case:  Imagine a USMC team preparing for an evacuation of a group of citizens.  They shift into their Rapid Response Planning Process (R2P2) and move out.   Although this process ensures all available information is used and can accomodate information from external sources, the urgency of the mission means it will proceed no matter what.   No one involved is going to waste time trying to download new software programs or test applications or risk breaking systems that are working well.  New data is fine, but new software is not needed.   This 3D model that runs in a browser could be of tremendous use at times like this.  If the data is there, models can be presented to the planning team and they can visually walk through buildings before their mission.  The models can be provided from locations far away or from local data if available.  And they can be presented on any computer with a browser.   

That is just one use case.  Many more can be brainstormed by planners, and I’d recommend this dialog get underway soon.  But there is actually another meta-point to make.   Consider the fact that this dialog can start much earlier in the process because of new web2.0 capabilities.  Thanks to Jeffrey’s micro-blogging on Twitter and the Google YouTube posting on his Blog, the national security community has some early warning on things we should be thinking through.  

My recommendation:  If you haven’t done so already… sign up for Twitter.  If you’d like to see some good feeds to follow start here.  

Microsoft Surface uses Jet to accelerate demand

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This is the third of three blog posts on technologies encountered during my visit to Redmond. This one is on Microsoft Surface. 

(First a note:  although this is about Surface, Microsoft also announced another hot capability called Sphere.  For more on that see the blog of the CTO of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments- Lewis Shepherd)


Microsoft Surface is something you may have heard about in the press.  For
those of us who experimented with technologies like the “Touch Table”
from Applied Minds we already have familiarity with the basic concepts. 
You interact with data using your hands.  But there is something dramatically different with the Microsoft Surface. 
The biggest thing is that it is designed from the ground up to work with the rest of the technology stack.  
You need smart programmers and integrators still, but it is easy
for technologists to work with this system so it will very likely
proliferate. 
Many software packages already exist for it, and more are being written all the time. 
It will be used in the National Security space really soon. 
It is just a matter of time before it is.  And its cost will ensure that it is widely used. 

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Inspiration Innovation and Motivation for the CTO

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Looking for a little inspiration and motivation to drive your innovation?  Take a
short break from the daily grind and watch the top ten TED talks of all time: 

http://www.ted.com/talks/top10

From the TED site:

With speakers like neuroanatomist Jill Bolte Taylor and global health
expert Hans Rosling, the list proves one of the compelling ideas behind
TEDTalks: that an unknown speaker with a powerful idea can reach — and
move — a global audience through the power of quality web video.

My favorite, for some reason, is the incredible undersea videos of David Gallo (see Underwater Astonishments).  I’ve already written a bit about another favorite, the Photosynth demos of Blaise Aguera y Arcas (see “Jaw-dropping Photosynth demo“). 

As for TED, it stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from those three worlds.  TED holds an annual conference where the world’s greatest thinkers come together to exchange thoughts.  These talks are made available to the public.  So you don’t have to be invited to the conference to benefit from the knowledge exchanged there.

After watching the top ten talks, you may want to consider signing up on the TED site.  Membership is free (but joining the site doesn’t mean you can attend the conference! read more about that on their site).

Automated Resolution of IT Problems

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Triumfant
In January 2008 I was named to the advisory board of Triumfant, a
company who has mastered the automated detection and resolution of IT
problems.  Of all the IT firms I’ve seen, they are the ones with the
most comprehensive approach to automated resolution management and the
only one I’ve seen that can automate the entire lifecycle of IT problem
management, from identification to resolution.

I recently read some very exciting news about Triumfant.   They have
just signed a partnership agreement with one of the largest suppliers
of computers to the federal government: computer giant Dell Inc.  
Triumfant software will be sold pre-installed on Dell computers to
federal customers running Microsoft Windows XP and Vista.   

I take this as a huge endorsement of the Triumfant approach of
automated process monitoring and IT compliance enforcement.   This agreement between Triumfant and Dell is
also great news for enterprise CTOs and other technologists who must
meet the mandate of the OMB’s Federal Desktop Core Configuration
(FDCC). 

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Zettaflop Supercomputers and Moore’s Law

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_gelsingerb
Intel's Pat Gelsinger, a guy in a position to know and help drive Intel's technology roadmap (he is Intel's Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and SVP) spoke recently at the Intel Developers Forum where he gave a presentation called "From Petaflops to Milliwatts."   In that presentation he described something we should all be glad to know, he believes Moore's Law will continue to hold good through 2029 (as I'm sure most readers here know, Moore's Law comes from Intel co-founder Gordon Moore's statement that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years). 

Read more on Pat Gelsinger's latest statement at the article on Web Sphere Journal.

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Disruptive Innovation, Again

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I have just reviewed, with several CTO friends, my personal reference list of disruptive technology for enterprises.    I am trying to aim that list to serve enterprise CTOs.  I hope it provides some degree of early warning to those CTOs, since my theory is that these technologies will be disruptive (in a positive way). 

I provide more of my informal methodology on the page that holds the list.  Please look it over when you get a chance and let me know if you think I have missed a capability. 

Again, it is at: disruptive technology for enterprises.