Bill Gates
The National Security Implications of Free 3D in a Browser
Jeffrey Carr sent a short broadcast via Twitter the other day: ”
New post on 3D imaging and Virtual Earth – mind blowing video http://bit.ly/3SxtdA ”
Jeffrey was blogging about a capability shown in the short clip below:
As you watch that, keep in mind that what you are seeing is a capability that can run on any PC that can run Internet Explorer (which is just about all of them).
The clip shows a capability that Microsoft’s Caligari toolset “TrueSpace” has to build high resolution 3D models then upload them into Virtual Earth.
Currently national security planners, as well as others with mission needs for geospatial information, have many choices for solutions. But most good solutions require loading specialized software on the workstation. This includes, of course, Google Earth. Google also provides 3D creation capabilities with Sketch-Up. And that is a powerful combination. But the need to load programs on workstations and move data to workstations complicates enterprise IT solutions. Additionally, Google Earth is reportedly not accurate in elevation measurements. Now the new capability shown in the YouTube clip indicates a solution that can give highly accurate 3D models to planners everywhere, and it can do that without having to instal large stand alone apps on workstations and without having to move large datasets to the workstation.
A use case: Imagine a USMC team preparing for an evacuation of a group of citizens. They shift into their Rapid Response Planning Process (R2P2) and move out. Although this process ensures all available information is used and can accomodate information from external sources, the urgency of the mission means it will proceed no matter what. No one involved is going to waste time trying to download new software programs or test applications or risk breaking systems that are working well. New data is fine, but new software is not needed. This 3D model that runs in a browser could be of tremendous use at times like this. If the data is there, models can be presented to the planning team and they can visually walk through buildings before their mission. The models can be provided from locations far away or from local data if available. And they can be presented on any computer with a browser.
That is just one use case. Many more can be brainstormed by planners, and I’d recommend this dialog get underway soon. But there is actually another meta-point to make. Consider the fact that this dialog can start much earlier in the process because of new web2.0 capabilities. Thanks to Jeffrey’s micro-blogging on Twitter and the Google YouTube posting on his Blog, the national security community has some early warning on things we should be thinking through.
My recommendation: If you haven’t done so already… sign up for Twitter. If you’d like to see some good feeds to follow start here.
Microsoft Surface uses Jet to accelerate demand
This is the third of three blog posts on technologies encountered during my visit to Redmond. This one is on Microsoft Surface.
(First a note: although this is about Surface, Microsoft also announced another hot capability called Sphere. For more on that see the blog of the CTO of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments- Lewis Shepherd)
Microsoft Surface is something you may have heard about in the press. For
those of us who experimented with technologies like the “Touch Table”
from Applied Minds we already have familiarity with the basic concepts.
You interact with data using your hands. But there is something dramatically different with the Microsoft Surface.
The biggest thing is that it is designed from the ground up to work with the rest of the technology stack.
You need smart programmers and integrators still, but it is easy
for technologists to work with this system so it will very likely
proliferate.
Many software packages already exist for it, and more are being written all the time.
It will be used in the National Security space really soon.
It is just a matter of time before it is. And its cost will ensure that it is widely used.
Microsoft Virtual Earth and ESP
This post is on Virtual Earth and ESP
Microsoft Virtual Earth provides immersive
imagery environments with very precise locational information,
enhanced, detailed 3D models of cities and an ability to integrate in
multiple datasets to support business needs. One of the most
significant benefits of this technology over Google Earth is its
metric accuracy, along all three geospatial axes (X, Y, and Z – meaning
that it includes accurate height calculation and navigation). Another
advantage is the lightness of its 3D client; it does not require major client software to be downloaded to a computer. The main system is 100% web based. But it delivers its content via technologies that make it look
like a full featured thick client application is being used.
The next technology I believe is critically important to be fluent on is Microsoft
ESP. This is a simulation platform that descended from their old
Flight Simulator. It can still be used for consumer gaming, but it has
advanced in quality so much that it can also be used for military
mission rehearsal and many other real world simulations. The platform
is being opened up with an open SDK so other developers and programmers can built models that will run in this environment. There are links between ESP and Microsoft Virtual Earth, but the two are NOT integrated
yet. Expect this to be done in future releases. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and SAIC are preparing to use ESP for simulations and mission planning capabilities. Just a few years ago it took millions of dollars and very high end computers to be able to build immersive training/simulation environments like this. The world has changed once again.
For more info on ESP see:
http://www.microsoft.com/esp/
Disruptive Technologies List Updated
The list of the positive technologies I believe all enterprise Chief Technology Officer s should be tracking has now been updated. Please check it out at:
http://www.ctovision.com/disruptive-technology-list.html
I try to keep this list up by remaining in dialog with enterprise CTO s and soliciting their feedback on the list. I also keep watching what the venture capital folks are investing in and try to closely track what the big IT firms are up to. The result is the list.
I’ve also started writing slightly more detailed reviews of key positively disruptive technologies. I post them under titles “Disruptive Tech:…” and you can find links to those pages on the right hand side of the CTOvision.com blog.
For now this list includes:
- Disruptive Tech: Adapx
- Disruptive Tech: Adobe
- Disruptive Tech: Agent Logic
- Disruptive Tech: Attensity
- Disruptive Tech: Basis Technology
- Disruptive Tech: Centrifuge Systems
- Disruptive Tech: CopperEye
- Disruptive Tech: Endeca
- Disruptive Tech: Forterra Systems
- Disruptive Tech: Initiate Systems
- Disruptive Tech: Inxight
- Disruptive Tech: Language Weaver
- Disruptive Tech: MetaCarta
- Disruptive Tech: PixLogic
- Disruptive Tech: Quantum4D
- Disruptive Tech: Triumfant
See also:
Automated Resolution of IT Problems
In January 2008 I was named to the advisory board of Triumfant, a
company who has mastered the automated detection and resolution of IT
problems. Of all the IT firms I’ve seen, they are the ones with the
most comprehensive approach to automated resolution management and the
only one I’ve seen that can automate the entire lifecycle of IT problem
management, from identification to resolution.
I recently read some very exciting news about Triumfant. They have
just signed a partnership agreement with one of the largest suppliers
of computers to the federal government: computer giant Dell Inc.
Triumfant software will be sold pre-installed on Dell computers to
federal customers running Microsoft Windows XP and Vista.
I take this as a huge endorsement of the Triumfant approach of
automated process monitoring and IT compliance enforcement. This agreement between Triumfant and Dell is
also great news for enterprise CTOs and other technologists who must
meet the mandate of the OMB’s Federal Desktop Core Configuration
(FDCC).
Sea Dragon and PhotoSynth
This first post is on Sea Dragon and Photosynth.
SeaDragon
is a capability that promises to change the way people use screens,
from wall sized displays to mobile devices. Visual information can be
smoothly browsed regardless of the size of the dataset or the bandwidth
of the network. For more info see:
http://labs.live.com/Seadragon.aspx
A YouTube demo of Seadragon is at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-DqZ8jAmv0
I would highly recommend watching that video. It really makes this technology easy to understand.
At the second half of this YouTube video is a demo of the next technology: “Photosynth.”
Photosynth was called “the coolest technology I have seen in recent
memory” by Jeff Jonas. Its power comes from its ability to find
context in images and link that context to other images and other
metadata so the context is accumulated. Photo collections can be
turned into entry points to explore the entire world. You can explore
gigabytes of information in seconds. This helps humans make sense of
what they are looking at. For an appreciation of what Photosynth might
do for our mission area, see the same YouTube video I mentioned above
at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-DqZ8jAmv0
As you watch this video, imagine if all the images any source anywhere had taken were
linked together in the way you will see images of the Notre Dame Cathedral.
The Future Is Changing Again
There have been several recent announcements by the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) project worth note. OLPC is a nonprofit organization founded in 2005 by Nicholas Negroponte and others from the MIT Media Lab with the goal of providing one laptop for every child on the planet. So far they have delivered about 500,000 systems. That's huge by any standard.
The first new announcement is that project leaders have now announced that Microsoft windows will run on the devices. The laptops will have a duel boot mode so Linux will also be an OS. The decision adds cost to the laptop, but not much. More memory is required to run two OSs, and Microsoft is charging $3 per CPU in licensing fees.
The second recent announcement is a new design. The current design is a smart, futuristic looking device that looks great and provides great functionality in a form factor that can take a beating.
The next version, due in 2010, is a smaller model that has dual touch screens and no keyboard.
What’s Next In Enterprise IT
Reportedly Bill Gates said "We always overestimate the change that will occur
in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in
the next ten." That is a very level headed observation. I think it reflects the way we humans react to technology capability growth. Think for a minute about most of the graphs you see in Ray Kurzweil presentations. Exponential growth isn’t dramatic right away, it is dramatic over time. We get our hopes up and expect wonders right away and overestimate the change that should be here short term. Then tend to be discouraged when that dramatic change isn’t here yet which makes us underestimate the power of something like a doubling of performance every year multiplied by ten years.
I think enterprise CTOs are in tough spots because they are charged with avoiding both the human faults outlined above. A CTO needs to have a balanced estimate of the change that will be here in a year or two or ten. And we need that balanced assessment across multiple sub disciplines of enterprise technology, including virtualization, storage, communications, middleware, development environments, etc.
I can’t say I have the magic recipe that will provide that balance. But I do have some personal predictions of change that I enjoy sharing with other technologists. I built a briefing on the future of IT several years ago to help my organization confront some brutal facts about the future. I later changed it to help us with strategic planning efforts, and over time updated it to help several decision makers noodle through the impact of some key technologies on our future.
I’ve attached two copies of the briefing here, one in open document format and one in Powerpoint format.
Download 080402TechnologyFutures.odp
Download 080402TechnologyFutures.ppt
Now let me mention the big flaw in my briefing. Although it has been reviewed and commented on by some GREAT technologists around the federal community and in Silicon Valley, it really needs more eyes on it and could use more input. I think what I need to do is convert it to 100% text and then build a page on wikipedia for this topic that many hands can edit. Then we will have something that may be of more use to enterprise technologists.
But till then, please let me know if you have any suggestions for me on technologies I should be tracking, or comments on assessments I mention in the briefing.
Thanks much.
Bob
The Future of Technology: A CTO View
I’ve just updated my reference file on the future of technology. It can be found at:
Download 071229TechnologyFutures.ppt (2320.5K)
or in open document format:
Download 071229TechnologyFutures.odp (1885.8K)
I enjoy maintaining this briefing on the future of information technology for a couple reasons. One is that it is a great way to keep a dialog up with technologists and thought leaders. It also forces me to think about the future and all CTOs need to do more of that (it is a way to help prepare for coming disruptions).
CTOvision Blog 